WASHINGTON U.S. retail sales rose strongly in May as Americans bought automobiles and a range of other goods, even as they paid more for gasoline, suggesting that economic growth was gaining steam despite a sharp slowdown in job creation.
Other data on Tuesday hinted at a steady build-up of inflation pressures, with import prices recording their largest increase in just over four years in May as the drag from a strong dollar and lower oil prices fades.
The signs of fairly healthy domestic demand and rising imported inflation could attract the attention of officials at the Federal Reserve, who were due to gather for two-day meeting on Tuesday. While May’s weak employment report has all but ruled out an interest rate increase at this meeting, the steady flow of upbeat economic reports keeps a hike in July on the table.
“This won’t spur the Fed to raise interest rates tomorrow, but it could cast a more positive tone on the statement… setting the stage for an increase in July,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.5 percent last month after surging by an unrevised 1.3 percent in April. The second straight month of gains boosted sales 2.5 percent from a year ago. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose a solid 0.4 percent last month after an upwardly revised 1.0 percent increase in April.
These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously reported to have risen 0.9 percent in April. Economists had forecast both overall retail and core sales gaining 0.3 percent last month.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Prices for U.S. government debt rose marginally, while U.S. stocks were little changed.
BOOST TO SECOND-QUARTER GROWTH
The broad increase in retail sales last month suggests the economy has regained momentum after growth slowed to a 0.8 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. GDP growth estimates for the second quarter are converging around a 2.5 percent rate.
“Today’s report, while not a blockbuster, should help to boost expectations for consumer spending and for the economy as a whole for the second quarter,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.
Strong sales are also helping businesses to reduce an inventory overhang, which could boost future production. In a second report, the Commerce Department said inventories gained 0.1 percent in April after rising 0.3 percent in March.
Business sales rose 0.9 percent in April, the largest increase since February 2014, after gaining 0.2 percent in March.
Tepid employment gains in May stirred concerns about the health of the economy. But so far, data on first-time applications for unemployment benefits suggests labor market strength remains intact.
In May, auto sales rose 0.5 percent after racing 3.1 percent in April. Receipts at service stations increased 2.1 percent, reflecting recent increases in gasoline prices.
Americans also bought clothing and spent on online purchases. They boosted discretionary spending, splurging on sporting goods and hobbies, frequenting restaurants and bars, and buying electronics and appliances.
But households cut back on purchases of building materials and garden equipment, as well as furniture.
In a third report, the Labor Department said import prices increased 1.4 percent last month, the largest rise since March 2012, after advancing 0.7 percent in April.
In the 12 months through May, import prices fell 5.0 percent, the smallest decline since November 2014.
The dollar’s surge and a plunge in oil prices between June 2014 and December 2015 had dampened inflation. But with the dollar weakening 1.5 percent against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners this year and oil prices near $50 per barrel, that drag is starting to lift.
Export prices jumped 1.1 percent in May, the biggest gain since March 2011, after rising 0.5 percent in April. Export prices fell 4.5 percent from a year ago, the smallest drop since December 2014.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani- Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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