BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, a Reuters poll showed, as the government extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution.
Policymakers in the world’s second largest economy have been trying to contain financial risks and slow an explosive build-up in debt without stunting economic growth.
The poll of 61 analysts showed growth in gross domestic product likely slowed to 6.7 percent on a year-on-year basis, down from 6.8 percent in the third quarter.
The expected moderation comes on the back of a cooling property sector, pollution curbs that have hit factory activity and a rise in corporate borrowing costs.
“We see Q4 GDP (growth) moderating slightly to 6.7 percent year-on-year, with softer quarter-on-quarter momentum,” analysts at UBS said in a note.
GDP growth for the full-year of 2018 could slow to 6.4 percent from an expected 6.8 percent in 2017, as “property sales and construction slow on sustained tight policies and fading market momentum” and infrastructure investment decelerates on tighter local government financing, the UBS analysts said.
A better-than-expected gross domestic product reading could lift stocks and global commodity prices, and boost bullish sentiment on the yuan CNY=CFXS, which has gained about 1 percent against the dollar so far this year, following a 6.8 percent rise last year.
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Economists expected December factory output to have grown 6 percent from a year earlier, slowing from November’s 6.1 percent.
China’s commodities buying spree eased slightly in December, with copper, iron ore and crude oil imports all falling from bumper levels a month earlier, the latest sign that Beijing’s anti-smog crackdown is slowing industrial activity.
Retail sales are seen growing 10.1 percent in December from a year earlier, easing slightly from 10.2 percent in November.
Fixed-asset investment is predicted to have increased 7.1percent in 2017, easing from 7.2 percent in January-November.
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