LONDON (Reuters) – A 40 percent surge in world tech stocks, a jump of almost a third in emerging markets and double-digit percentage gains for top commodities have given many investors their best year since the post-Lehman bounce of 2009.
Aside from Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies that have gained upwards of 1,500 percent, the biggest returns have come from internet-savvy FANG stocks, industrial metals and eastern Europe’s currencies, while the dollar .DXY has put in its worst year since 2003.
The other side of that coin has been the euro’s 13 percent rally EUR= as the European Central Bank has headed for the stimulus exit door and a second bumper year in a row for emerging markets.
That combination has put a euro satellite currency — the Czech crown — at top of the 2017 FX table. It got an early boost when its cap against the euro was scrapped, but strong growth and two rate hikes has seen it fly up almost 19 percent.
“You had perfect conditions this year,” said Aberdeen Standard Investments’ Kevin Daly. “Rising global growth, good news generally from China and Donald Trump has been less of an impediment on risk appetite than had been expected.”
It has all driven the broadest gauge of world stocks, MSCI’s 47-country All World index, .MIWD00000PUS up 20 percent. It has not suffered a single monthly drop, aided by the likes of Wall Street’s Dow Jones .DJI which has hit roughly 70 record highs.
Emerging markets and the so-called FANGs – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google – have made the most eye-catching moves though.
An 11 percent surge in the last few months alone has given Toyko’s Nikkei .N225 a more than 23 percent gain for the year on a dollar-adjusted basis, which puts its just a percent ahead of Wall Street’s S&P 500 .SXP.
In bonds, Germany’s Bunds and Italian BTPs have both made double-digits for investors at 13 and 16 percent, straddling the 14.2 percent from emerging market local currency debt. U.S. Treasuries, in contrast, have barely budged.
They have been some losers to keep the dollar company. Qatar stocks are down almost 14 percent having seen tensions rise with Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s lira TRY= has been pounded by rising inflation and political machinations.
Venezuelan bonds, one of the star performers in recent years, have been hit as the country has veered towards a default.
But commodities are another market which has had a bumper year.
Copper CMCU3, which is highly correlated to China’s fortunes, is up more than a quarter, oil LCOc1 has jumped over 13 percent, safe-haven gold XAU= has had its best year since 2011, while palladium has rocketed more than 50 percent. XPD=
”Finishing on such a high note makes next year rather challenging,“ ABN Amro’s CIO Duret said. ”We should enter 2018 year with a dose of prudence.
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